Senate Roundtable: The 2016 Agricultural Economic Outlook

• •U.S. agricultural exports are forecast at $125 billion for fiscal year 2016, a 10.5% decrease from the previous year.
• •One-third of the decline in agricultural exports is attributed to reduced sales to China.
• •China's GDP growth is projected to slow to 6.1% in 2016, with a long-term trend toward 5%.
• •Grain and feed exports are projected to decrease by $4.4 billion.
• •Soybean exports are projected to decrease by $6.3 billion, though volume is expected to remain the second-highest on record at 46 million metric tons.
• •Cotton exports are forecast to drop by $900 million due to shrinking global demand.
• •Rice exports are forecast to drop by $300 million due to volume declines.
• •A strong U.S. dollar makes it more difficult to export products to countries with weaker currencies like Egypt and Nigeria.
• •A strong U.S. dollar makes it easier for U.S. buyers to import agricultural inputs like fertilizer from countries like Canada, Russia, and Ukraine.
• •80% of U.S. agricultural products are sold domestically, meaning a strong U.S. economy provides significant support for the sector.
• •The subcommittee plans to begin the appropriations process for the FDA and USDA immediately following this roundtable.

This discussion provides the economic context for upcoming federal budget decisions regarding the U.S. Department of Agriculture and the Food and Drug Administration.

Patterns POLISCOPE noticed across the record. These are observations to investigate, not conclusions.