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NewsFlorida DailyJuly 30, 2026Hillsborough

New Florida Republican Primary Poll Shows Shifting Candidate Support

A July 2026 poll of 1,020 likely Florida Republican primary voters shows Congressman Byron Donalds leading the field, with Speaker Paul Renner and James Fishback gaining momentum. The survey highlights a significant decline in support for Lieutenant Governor Jay Collins and notes that candidate Bobby Williams was not assigned a percentage in the results.

electionsFloridaRepublican Partypollinggubernatorial race
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Why It Matters

The poll provides a snapshot of voter preferences for the Florida Republican gubernatorial primary less than three weeks before the election, indicating which candidates are gaining or losing support among the electorate.

Key Facts

  • Byron Donalds leads the Republican primary field with 32.2% support.
  • Paul Renner is in second place with 18.8% support, up from 14.0% in June.
  • James Fishback holds 13.1% support, up from 2.0% in June.
  • Jay Collins has 2.2% support, down from 11.0% in June.
  • 31.6% of surveyed voters remain undecided.
  • Bobby Williams was not assigned a percentage in the survey results.
  • The survey was conducted July 21-23, 2026, among 1,020 likely Florida Republican primary voters.
  • The survey has a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level.

Who's Mentioned

personPaul Renner“Candidate showing the strongest gains in the poll.”personJames Fishback“Investor and Republican gubernatorial candidate currently polling at 13.1%.”personDonald Trump“Endorsed candidate Donalds.”personByron Donalds“Candidate identified as seeing little movement in polling despite a Trump endors”organizationPolitical Matrix“Division of Palafox Productions and Promotions that conducted the surveys.”personFishback“Candidate rising in the polls despite a ballot challenge.”personBobby Williams“Humanitarian and Republican gubernatorial candidate not assigned a percentage in”personJay Collins“Lieutenant Governor and Republican gubernatorial candidate currently polling at ”organizationPalafox Productions and Promotions“Parent company of Political Matrix.”personCollins“Candidate experiencing a decline in polling numbers.”personDonalds“Candidate showing little movement despite a Trump endorsement.”personGreg Fink“CEO of Political Matrix.”