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NewsNY Post PoliticsMay 7, 2026United States

University of Virginia Updates 2026 House Election Forecast

The University of Virginia’s Center for Politics has adjusted its ratings for 17 U.S. House races, citing recent redistricting, primary election results, and congressional scandals. These changes reflect shifting projections for party control of the House ahead of the 2026 midterms.

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Why It Matters

These ratings provide a non-partisan assessment of which congressional districts are most competitive, signaling where national party resources and campaign spending are likely to be concentrated.

Key Facts

  • The Center for Politics adjusted ratings for 17 House districts.
  • Florida saw 9 rating changes following the enactment of a new congressional map.
  • Florida's 14th District moved from 'Safe Democratic' to 'Leans Republican'.
  • Florida's 9th District moved from 'Likely Democratic' to 'Likely Republican'.
  • Florida's 22nd District moved from 'Safe Democratic' to 'Leans Republican'.
  • Florida's 25th District moved from 'Safe Democratic' to 'Toss-up'.
  • Ohio's 9th District moved from 'Leans Republican' to 'Toss-up'.
  • Ohio's 7th District moved from 'Safe' to 'Likely Republican'.
  • North Carolina's 11th District moved from 'Likely' to 'Leans Republican' due to an ethics investigation.
  • Texas' 23rd District moved from 'Safe' to 'Likely Republican'.
  • Current national ratings stand at 213 Democratic-leaning, 207 Republican-leaning, and 15 Toss-up districts.
  • Four Virginia districts were shifted toward Democrats last week following a state redistricting plan.

Who's Mentioned

organizationUniversity of Virginia Center for Politics“The organization responsible for the election ratings analysis.”personTony Gonzales“Former Republican Representative for Texas' 23rd District.”personMax Miller“Republican Representative for Ohio's 7th District.”personKathy Castor“Democratic Representative for Florida's 14th District.”personChuck Edwards“Republican Representative for North Carolina's 11th District.”personDarren Soto“Democratic Representative for Florida's 9th District.”personBernie Moreno“Republican Senator from Ohio.”personRon DeSantis“Governor of Florida who signed a new congressional map into law.”personDonald Trump“President who has encouraged GOP-led states to redraw congressional maps.”personMarcy Kaptur“Democratic Representative for Ohio's 9th District.”